I believe what we have as to the testing of low temperature of wood directly relates to the Black Swan theory. This is what my science professors have suggested I consider. Consider for instance the white-swan/black-swan example: Let’s say a theory states that all swans are white. This is a very strong claim; it does not apply to one or a few particular observations of a swan, but all of them. It would be rather difficult to verify if all of the swans in Earth are indeed white. It is thus almost impossible to prove this theory directly. The catch is that it will take only a single contrary example to refute it. If we find a single swan that is black, the entire theory should be rejected, so alternate theories could be raised.

Your theory is that all the testing conducted to date agrees that this hypothesis, long term exposure to lower temperatures, has been tested. In the testing wood was exposed to long-term heating and then tested for its ignition properties. The results are that the testing disproves the hypothesis of long-term low temperature exposure will reduce the ignition temperature of the wood. This directly relates to all swans are white hypothesis because no person has ever seen a black swan. Here it only takes a single verifiable incident where the wood ignited at a lower temperature for the theory not to be valid. The next question is do we have verifiable incidents or testing where wood that was exposed to temperatures below that of the report ignition temperature of the wood was ignited at a lower temperature.

The first support of the fact that it can take place is the case cited by Babrauskas. He cites a case in Canada where it was documented the temperature of the pipe passing through the wood was 170ºF. He has supporting photographs of this incident. It was not known the length of time of this exposure, but it was known it was not a continuous exposure. I verified Babrauskas report of the incident by contacting the investigator directly. This investigator did establish that the temperature of the water coming from the heater was 170ºF. This is an actual incident that could not be disproved.

On this same subject there was testing conducted by The Warren Group. The results of the testing scientifically support the hypothesis that low temperature, long term exposure can cause ignition of wood at a temperature lower that the reported ignition temperature of wood. Here there were three similar incidents involving the same type of equipment. The scene was properly document as to the first fuel ignition and ignition sources. There was no question as to the accuracy of the determination as to where the fire originated and the sources of heat producing devices and appliances at that location. Research was conducted as to the heat output of the appliances located at the point where the fire started. From that there were experiments conducted, including full scale experiments. The results of this testing proved that low temperature long term exposure to heat below the ignition of wood will allow the wood to be ignited at a temperature well below the ignition temperature of the wood.

Jim Mazerat
Forensic Investigations Group