Steve,

“Many of your posts focus on the same points” as well.

Coming up with a hypothesis out of thin air is the basic error which leads to Expectation Bias [921-2014 Sec. 4.3.8], Confirmation Bias [4.3.9*] and "Cause Hunting." It also completely violates the principles of using a Systematic Approach [4.2] and turns the Scientific Method [4.3 et seq.] on its head. In order to work properly, the elements of the scientific method should be accomplished in order [Figure 4.3].

Your upside down understanding completely perverts the philosophy that has been espoused in 921 Chapter 4 – Basic Methodology for the past twenty-two years.

Making a “wild ass guess” in the car on the way to the fire scene and then looking for evidence to support a cause once you get there is what many of us have been fighting against for decades.

That sound you hear in the distance is Isaac Newton spinning in his grave.

While you are still alive this horse may not be dead, but it is in a terminal coma.

Pat Kennedy, CFEI, CFPS, MIFireE
Fire and Explosion Analyst
Sarasota, Florida
[www.kennedy-fire.com]