Making decisions of the probability of ignition based solely on "reported" surface temperatures of incandescent light bulbs is a slippery slope. Temperature is not heat, only a symptom of it.
There are hundreds of variables involved - almost too many to list.
Many of the charts of bulb surface temperatures are based upon decades old charts published by Factory Mutual (produced with questionable data).
Surface temperature does not equal heat transfer, nor any information of target fuel ignition characteristics or the ignition environment.
Don't thrown the temperature data "baby out with the bath water," but neither take the data at face value.
Pat Kennedy, CFEI, CFPS, MIFireE
Fire and Explosion Analyst
Sarasota, Florida
[
www.kennedy-fire.com]