Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

No problem Chris. I always consider all your posts to be most probably to the same remarkable levels of credibility, insight, and importance.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

My concern is: "Where is the independent scientific peer review?" If a technique is being protected as "proprietary information," how can it be properly peer reviewed?
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

George Wendt's epiphany - on the record. One down, 5000 to go. And it only took ten years of argument. ;=)
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

The question to be examined is what can cause an arson clearance rate to triple from 22% to 65% in three years.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Here is the broadcast.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Yes Dave, But with Negative Corpus the adage would be: "Absence of evidence is proof of presence"
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

The Phoenix FD report was not aired on ABC Nightline last night. It appears that it was knocked off by other, more current news, stories. I expect that it will appear this week.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

It is my understanding that ABC News Nightline will have a story on the Phoenix Fire Department Fire Investigation Unit. Tuesday night, May20.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

In light of the amazing apparent misunderstanding of the relationship between NFPA 1033 and the various fire investigators certifications expressed in this question, I feel compelled (once again) to give a brief description. This has been discussed, ad nauseam, on this forum many times before. There is no such thing as an NFPA 1033 Certification, or Pro Board Certification, per se. There
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Can you be a little more specific? Is this it?
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

I was being serious. This is a complicated issue involving many points of view. Mostly I have questions and not yet answers. My intent in expressing hyperbole was to stimlate the conversation - stir the pot. I belive that this issue needs further review, even thought the point has been changed four times during the life of 921. For example: if the criminal case criteria is "beyo
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

On the other hand, in our opinion that there is only a 49.00000000009% chance that this was not a set fire.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Please Mr. deathrow prisoner, sit in this funny looking chair (Ol' Sparky). Put on this funny looking hat. We are going to kill you. Why? Beacuse your fire was PROBABLY incendiary (We're 50.00000000001% sure).
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

If we were talking about the gas utility, rather than the electric company, there would be litigation based upon code or standards of good practice violations.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

It is granted that in a criminal fire case the responiibity for the fire must be established "beyond a reasonable doubt." Does the corpus delecti also have to be proven "beyond a reasonable doubt," or is probale good evoungh?
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

During the life of NFPA 921 the description and definitions of what constitutes a “proper” level of certainty has been changed four times. It has been one of the most discussed issues. NFPA 921-1992 12~6 Certainty of Opinions. (a) A reasonable degree of scientific (engineering) certainty. This degree of challenge (;On-esponds to the degree of proor applied in criminal legal proceedings,
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

If the level of proof to call a fire cause in a civil liability fire case is "a preponderance of the evidence," shouldn't the level of proof in a criminal fire case be "beyond a reasonable doubt?"
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Maybe if they were doing hotwork. Maybe not if they were nailing shingles. In either event, why would you need to use a complicated matrix like Bilancia, instead of just applying the methodology and techniques of 921. Bilancia is just a coloed squares note taking for guys who cant keep track in their head.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Thanks everyone. I have been sent a copy.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Can anyone provide me with a copy of IAAI Forensic Science Committee, “Position on Comparison Samples,” Fire and Arson Investigator. Vol. 41, No. 2 (December 1990)?
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Yes. You can have more than one hypothesis at a time. If one of them is more probable than not, it can be your final hypothesis. If none of the hypotheses reaches the "probable" standard and all may be possible (to equal or varying degrees) you have not reached a final hypothesis and the object of your inquiry is "Undertermined." This concept has been in 921 since you were a
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Jim, I wasn't trying to join the pointless argument. Just trying to help those few people who might be interested and not already bored to death the Mazerat/Carpenter syndrome (if any) by posting the section mentioned.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

19.5 Developing a Cause Hypothesis. The investigator should use the scientific method (see the Basic Methodology chapter) as the method for data gathering, hypothesis development, and hypothesis testing regarding the consideration of potential ignition sequences. This process of consideration actually involves the development and testing of alternate hypotheses. In this case, a separate hyp
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

The Bilancia Ignition Matrix method does demonstrate the Process of Elimination and the Scientific Method as espoused in 921 (collect data, analyze data, develop hypotheses, prove hypotheses by falsification). Those familiar with 921 should recognize that principles of analysis of a competent ignition source, competent fuel, and viable heat transfer mechanism is exactly what has been espoused
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Your response to Doug was right on, up until you cherry picked data on the Flight 93 crash to use as an example. Please don't tell us that you are buying into the idiotic conspiracy theorists' drivel. See attached photo of the plane's engine being excavated from the crater.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations

Breaking News Jim Mazerat has escaped and is free. When interviewed by reporters from the Times Picayune, Mazerat made a statement, “I would do anything to prevent Pat Kennedy from getting that beer.” Nevertheless, all I really wanted was to get my friend back.
Forum: Fire/Arson Investigations