Opening Pandora's Box ...

Based on the reliable application of the SM, an argument can be made that a Fire Cause Classification of Undetermined is meaningless. Not true of an Undetermined Fire Cause.

If you eliminate "Natural" as just a subset of "Accidental," and you eliminate "Undetermined," based on the reliable application of the SM, you are left with "Accidental" and "Incendiary."

The discriminating factor between "Accidental" and "Incendiary" is human involvement with an intent to initiate a fire where one was not going to occur, otherwise.Thus, if you receive data (i.e., information that can be documented and verified) that a fire has occurred, then you are able to formulate a Fire Cause Classification of "Accidental Fire Cause." As the collection of data proceeds, if one finds evidence of an incendiary fire, then this evidence disproves the "Accidental" fire cause classification hypothesis AND then provides evidence to formulate an alternative hypothesis of an Incendiary Fire Cause Classification. Thus, without any other data except that a fire has occurred, one can reliably determine using the SM that it is an Accidental Fire Cause Classification. It may not be the ultimate determination, but it is the most reliable based on the available evidence. Thus, "Undetermined" is meaningless in this context.

This argument is different than "all fires should be initially determined to be accidental" based on the legal premise of "innocent until proven guilty." Same guidance, but arrived at with a different basis.

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com