The document speaks to achieving a reliable determination with respect to the application of the Scientific Method (i.e. NFPA 921). It does not address an error rate with respect to the determination of the origin and fire cause. What does an "error rate" even mean in the context of fire origin and cause determinations in any specific case?

Science does not provide a means for which to determine that you made your determination without any error. At any given point in time, new evidence can be obtained that disproves your hypothesis.

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com