The qualification of an error rate requires that the "correct" determination be known.In most cases, outside of fire tests and training exercises, this is unknown.In addition, as John Lentini points out, how does one qualify a gradient with respect to how accurate an investigator is in reaching a determination. This aspect of fire investigation can be compared to risk assessment. One could potentially estimate a probability associated with any determination, but "in reality" it is either the "correct" or "incorrect" determination (a zero or a one).

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com