I am not suggesting this has anything to do with what was talked about in Daubert. I am concerned that the definition in 921 of the word “Probable” can be misleading. When I speak about error rate I am using the words in the context of the rate of correct or incorrect predictions based on specific data. If I were to say that the level of certainty needs only to be slightly above 50% for my opinion to be considered correct, then what would be considered the possible error rate for my conclusion?

Where with John’s classes there is an indication that these individual do not feel the determination made by another person is correct all the time and that they believe approximately 20% of the calls are incorrect, I would like John to ask a different question. Ask the question do they believe their determinations are correct 100% of the time and work downward with the percentage on their own determinations and see what numbers we come up with.

The enemy of the conventional wisdom is not ideas but the march of events. John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affluent Society (1958).