Your example of 10 is based on the physical evidence at the fire scene. You did not develop 10 hypohteses without any evidence.

I think the 921 document's use of the words "consider" and "formulate" were not by chance.

Also, this is reference to your requirment that you have to eliminate all hypohteses except one in order to arrive at a final hypothesis:

"The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses. A better way for scientists to work, and many do, is to use Chamberlain's "Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses" (Chamberlain, 1897). In this method, a scientist thinks of all the possible hypotheses that might account for his or her observations, and then goes on to test each one. In this way, his ego is attached not to a single hypothesis, but to the development and testing of all of them (Platt, 1964 ). She takes pride not in a single hypothesis but in an array of them. She has an easier time using all the data, for many hypotheses are available to apply them to. Furthermore, single tests can be devised for each hypothesis and those that fail can be eliminated rapidly, thus increasing the efficiency of scientific progress. For those hypotheses that survive all conceivable tests, they can be arranged in some order of more probable to less probable based on the degree of support generated for each from the data, and the predictive value of the hypothesis. This arrangement then provides a research plan for other or future workers who may have additional data or newer techniques or instruments. In applied situations where decisions must be made on incomplete information, for example your health or environmental issues, a scientist left with two or three hypotheses can still make an informed decision based on which one is best supported by the available evidence. Science is thus more efficient when the method of "multiple working hypotheses" is fully utilized."

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com