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Re: Process of Elimination - Bilancia Ignition Matrix method
Posted by: PMK140 (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2014 08:39AM
The Bilancia Ignition Matrix method does demonstrate the Process of Elimination and the Scientific Method as espoused in 921 (collect data, analyze data, develop hypotheses, prove hypotheses by falsification).
Those familiar with 921 should recognize that principles of analysis of a competent ignition source, competent fuel, and viable heat transfer mechanism is exactly what has been espoused in 921 since the first edition. What the Bilanca Ignition Matrix does is physically illustrate the system, much as a Heat and Flame Vector Analysis diagram illustrates the determination of an origin by patterns analysis.
“Therein lies the rub.”
The exclusive use of the Bilancia system seems to make the simplest rookie investigator mistake: “Cause Hunting.” “Cause Hunting” is the search of a fire cause by an exclusive analysis of ALL the possible ignition scenarios in an area of origin without a sufficiently detailed origin analysis. It is most commonly used by individuals who are not sufficiently schooled or do not understand the principles of patterns analysis and origin determination.
921-2014 - 4.1* Nature of Fire Investigations.
“The basic methodology of the fire investigation should rely on
the use of a systematic approach and attention to all relevant
details…With few exceptions, the proper methodology for a fire
or explosion investigation is to first determine and establish
the origin(s), then investigate the cause: circumstances,
conditions, or agencies that brought the ignition source, fuel,
and oxidant together.”
Chapter 18 Origin Determination
18.1 Introduction.
“…The origin of a fire is one of the most important
hypotheses that an investigator develops and tests during the
investigation. Generally, if the origin cannot be determined,
the cause cannot be determined, and generally, if the correct
origin is not identified, the subsequent cause determination
will also be incorrect.”
.Chapter 19 Fire Cause Determination
19.1 Introduction.
Fire cause determination generally follows origin
determination (see Origin Determination chapter). Generally,
a fire cause determination can be considered reliable only
if the origin has been correctly determined.
That is why a systematic step-by-step is urged in 921. There is a reason why the origin chapter precedes the cause chapter in 921.
The Bilancia Method is fine, but care should be taken not to substitute this method for the proper full systematic approach.
Pat Kennedy, CFEI, CFPS, MIFireE
Fire and Explosion Analyst
Sarasota, Florida
[www.kennedy-fire.com]
Those familiar with 921 should recognize that principles of analysis of a competent ignition source, competent fuel, and viable heat transfer mechanism is exactly what has been espoused in 921 since the first edition. What the Bilanca Ignition Matrix does is physically illustrate the system, much as a Heat and Flame Vector Analysis diagram illustrates the determination of an origin by patterns analysis.
“Therein lies the rub.”
The exclusive use of the Bilancia system seems to make the simplest rookie investigator mistake: “Cause Hunting.” “Cause Hunting” is the search of a fire cause by an exclusive analysis of ALL the possible ignition scenarios in an area of origin without a sufficiently detailed origin analysis. It is most commonly used by individuals who are not sufficiently schooled or do not understand the principles of patterns analysis and origin determination.
921-2014 - 4.1* Nature of Fire Investigations.
“The basic methodology of the fire investigation should rely on
the use of a systematic approach and attention to all relevant
details…With few exceptions, the proper methodology for a fire
or explosion investigation is to first determine and establish
the origin(s), then investigate the cause: circumstances,
conditions, or agencies that brought the ignition source, fuel,
and oxidant together.”
Chapter 18 Origin Determination
18.1 Introduction.
“…The origin of a fire is one of the most important
hypotheses that an investigator develops and tests during the
investigation. Generally, if the origin cannot be determined,
the cause cannot be determined, and generally, if the correct
origin is not identified, the subsequent cause determination
will also be incorrect.”
.Chapter 19 Fire Cause Determination
19.1 Introduction.
Fire cause determination generally follows origin
determination (see Origin Determination chapter). Generally,
a fire cause determination can be considered reliable only
if the origin has been correctly determined.
That is why a systematic step-by-step is urged in 921. There is a reason why the origin chapter precedes the cause chapter in 921.
The Bilancia Method is fine, but care should be taken not to substitute this method for the proper full systematic approach.
Pat Kennedy, CFEI, CFPS, MIFireE
Fire and Explosion Analyst
Sarasota, Florida
[www.kennedy-fire.com]
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