Jim, Educate yourself on the available scientific literature on the development of fire models, the verification and validation of models, and the uncertainty and error rate of the results.There is a lot to know, which includes an undergraduate level of understanding in most to the topics areas in NFPA 1033. The "thermo-fluid" sciences form the basis for understanding "fire dynamics" and how these phenomenon are implemented into the fire models.

The models can be used in a reliable manner to obtain reliable results, but not in all cases. One needs to understand the limitations of the model they use and is it a reliable use for the specific scenario I am trying to understand. For example, if two competing hypotheses are distinguishable by a ULT difference of 10 degrees C, the accuracy of the model may not be sufficient to produce reliable determinations. But if the ULT difference is on the order of 100's of degrees C, you are on "firmer ground" with respect to reliability.

You cannot control what others do with models beyound providing warnings on the limitations of the models (The NUREG provides a color-coded system for accuracy of the model to specific scenarios). You can challenge the reliability of the application of the model to a specific set of conditions. The model user should be able to withstand reliable challenges to any modeling in a court of law.

I sometimes seem to spend a lot of time talking potential clients out of doing computer modeling because they have ignorance on what the models are reliably capable of. They are sometimes very useful. "It depends."

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com