"...One thing that is hurt 921 is the fact that they no longer believe in the process of elimination. If you really look at it the scientific method is the process of elimination. Even though you may not have an absolute conclusion, you do have a conclusion based on a methodology that was designed to reach the best conclusion possible...

The SM is based on falsification, not a process of elimination. The process of elimination is a reliable only in a special case that the fire investigation community does not have. That is, it is only reliable if you have a finite number of previously known outcomes. The five answers on a multiple choice exam is a decent example. Three different and known color marbles in a box. If you remove two, you can reliable predict the color of the last marble in the box.

Not the best conclusion. "Best" to who? "Best would be subjective and bias. The most reliable conclusion is the goal, not best.

"...If one needs to identify the first fuel ignited in the source of ignition, I agree that it makes it almost impossible to identify the causes of most fires. There are some cases where this is possible, but I would say the majority of the cases this is never done. Did destruction caused by the fire and all the dead consumes makes it difficult to pinpoint an exact fuel. Most cases there is multiple fuels. One may be able to determine a competent source of ignition in an area but because of the destruction does not know specifically what fuel that was that was the first to ignite. Under these conditions you can still develop a cause for the fire. If one must determine a specific fuel as being the first one ignite it to be able to make a determination as to the cause of the fire then I will question the accuracy of a large number of determinations being made through the use of the scientific method."

Cause and Fire Cause are different concepts. Identifying a competent ignition source requires the identification of the first fuel ignited. Otherwise, how does one determine the competency of the ignition source?

"Most cases there is multiple fuels." True, but only one "first fuel ignited."

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com