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Re: 921 & arson
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 30, 2022 10:48PM
"You state, “It is a special condition of the SM where one knows all of the finite possible outcomes are known upfront. This is not the case of the investigation of fire and explosion incidents.” By finite you are saying there is a limited number of possible outcomes. This may be true, but the total number of possible outcomes is not restricted."
This is only for a closed system and a special case of the SM that does not apply to the investigation of fires. Finite number is a fixed and known number. Like the four different colored marbles in a closed box. The color of the marbles is known upfront. A person removes three of the marbles. He/she can then reliably predict the color of the marbles still remaining in the closed box.The total number of valid hypotheses that can be formulated is restricted by the amount of available evidence.
"How is “Best” subjective when it is the only hypothesis that was not proven to be false? That is the point of the scientific method is to determine the best hypothesis based on the testing process. When used in this concept it has nothing to do with who it will favor."
Most reliable. Not the best. SM is all about reliability. Best is subjective and context specific.
"Show me where it states in any recognized published document where I am limited to identifying a specific fuel or specific heat source to determine the cause of a fire. The fact that I can show the different fuel sources in the are where ignition took place could all individually be ignited by the identified source of heat is sufficient to determine the cause of a fire. It can also be the other way where I identify the fuel but identify multiple competent ignition sources in the area. Actually, 921 agrees to the second one in the document. Are you saying 921 is incorrect?"
Do not think this is what I said. Fire Cause and Cause are two different concepts in 921. Multiple first fuel ignited and multiple competent ignition sources result in multiple hypotheses.
Science is great, but one must not forget common sense.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com