"The process of elimination is part of the scientific method."

It is a special condition of the SM where one knows all of the finite possible outcomes are known upfront. This is not the case of the investigation of fire and explosion incidents.

"The process of eliminating is the elimination of different hypotheses by proving them to be false."

This is the process of falsification.

"The known outcomes are the hypotheses proven to be false."

I do not understand this statement.

"Is not the best conclusion the one that is correct? The definition of best is excelling all other. Are you saying the remaining hypothesis, after all others have been proved to be false, is the best one?"

Science is not able to conclude that one is "correct." It can only say that it is the most reliable determination that can be made given the available evidence. "Best" is subjective and bias. In an adversarial process, what is best for one side may not be the best for the opposing side.

"If one identifies all the fuel packages in the area where ignition took place, then compares those packages to the identified ignition source then one can say any of the fuels identified were potential first fuel ignited. This way there is not the need to specifically identify the first fuel. Here you are identifying a fire cause without identifying the first fuel."

Your can not determine the fire cause without the identification of the three associated factors. 1) The first fuel ignited, 2) the competent ignition source for the first fuel ignited, and 3) how the first fuel ignited comes into contact with the competent ignition source to initiate the fire. If you have multiple fuels in an area of origin with a competent ignition source, then you have multiple fire cause hypotheses. You still need to identify the first fuel ignited. Only then can you assess the competency of the identified ignition source.

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com