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Re: 921 & arson
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: April 01, 2022 09:17AM
"What I am trying to say is the process to prove a hypothesis to be more than likely correct is the falsification process."
You can never "prove a hypothesis." One can only disprove.
"The ability to disprove all hypotheses but one to be false is the proof of that one hypothesis being correct based on the testing process and knowledge of the person conducting the testing."
That is only one of the four possible outcomes of the application of the SM. Go back and reread those four conditions I previously posted.
"This is not to say that the hypothesis is correct or that additional information from others my prove it to be false. If no others or additional information disproves the hypothesis on is to assume it is correct. Is that not what we are representing to the court. What I was saying is that a good or correct scientific hypothesis is one that cannot be proven false."
Not correct. Most reliable. This is falsification.
"We could say that is we cannot disprove the hypothesis the the correctness of that hypothesis is beyond what science can offer."
Not sure I understand your statement. Science offers a compilation of reliable knowledge that can be applied using the SM.
"By saying one can only prove a hypothesis to be false and never be able to say it is correct is to say in our profession we can never provide a correct answer as to the cause of a fire to the court. If we cannot do this simple task, why are we a profession? What good are we?"
It is "science" that can not do it. We are using "science" and the SM. It has its limitations. You need to understand those limitations. Reliable determinations are of great value.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com