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Re: 921 & arson
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 30, 2022 08:57AM
"The definition for the term “process of elimination” is the act of considering and rejecting each possible choice until only one is left.”
True for the special case of the SM where you know the finite number of outcomes.
"Is it not true that through the falsification method one is considering all possible hypotheses and then by testing each to the point of falsification one has rejected each possible hypothesis until only one hypothesis is left and was unable to be falsified?"
That is one condition that can arise from the application of the SM.
Falsification is the process of only disproving hypotheses since all the evidence in the world will ever prove a hypothesis, but a single piece of evidence can disprove a hypothesis. That is why the product of the application of the SM is reliability and not "accurate" or "correct" or the "truth." This tends to go against what lay people understand science to be and what it can do.
Look at the possible outcomes of the SM.
1) You may not be able to formulate any valid hypotheses (with evidence) due to a lack of evidence. Undetermined.
2) You may be able to only formulate one valid hypothesis based on the available evidence and there is no additional evidence that disproves the hypothesis. You are able to reach a determination that is uniquely consistent with the available evidence. Thus, the most reliable determination.
3) You may be able to formulate multiple valid hypotheses based on the available evidence. There is no additional evidence that disproves any of the hypotheses AND there is no additional evidence that allows one hypothesis to be deemed uniquely consistent with the available evidence. Undetermined.
4) You may be able to formulate multiple valid hypotheses based on the available evidence. There is no additional evidence that disproves any of the hypotheses AND there is additional evidence that allows one hypothesis to be deemed uniquely consistent with the available evidence. Thus, the most reliable determination.
There is more to the reliable application of the SM than just eliminating all hypotheses except one. Yet all of these outcomes use falsification.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com