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Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty
Posted by:
jgmcfps (IP Logged)
Date: February 08, 2007 11:09AM
Let us not forget that NFPA 921 clearly states that the investigator must establish a level of confidence/certainty for any and all opinions. This is a fact that should be determined WAY before a matter gets to trial.
I personnally don't have a problem with "conclusive", "probable", "possible" and "suspected" as levels of confidence/certainty. As pointed out in 921, if the level is only possible or suspected, then the cause is appropriately listed as "undetermined".
Probable is "more likely than not" - which meets the long established level of proof for civil proceedings.
In incendiary fires, both conclusive and probable are appropriate to be used. However, if the level is only "probable" you have enough to classify the fire for stats, but not enough to meet the "beyond a reasonable doubt" requirement for a conviction in a criminal trial.
Just my two cents.
James G. Munger, PhD, FIFireE, CFPS
www.qdotengineering.com
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