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Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty
Posted by: Jim Mazerat (IP Logged)
Date: February 08, 2007 05:15PM

You are not mis-reading 921, it does not use the word “Must”. It was a mis-use of words on my part. You are right again when you say that 921 allows for a determination to be made if the level of certainty reaches the level of probable. In there definition of this term they indicate to reach the level of probable you opinion only needs in your mine to reach the level of slightly more than 50% chance of being correct. I find nothing wrong with an investigator expressing a level of certainty or confidence in their findings. Do you know of any science where 100% certainty is obtainable. It is my perception that in scientific predictions, a hypothesis, the only certainty is nothing is certain to the level of 100%. I agree in placing a degree of probable accuracy for the opinion being correct, most scientist give a percentage. My only problem is that using our terminology, “probable” could mean a percentage as low as 50% or one as high as 99.9%. Maybe the answer would be to remove the precentage range.

I believe what is being done in this case, as with classifications, is we are attempting to have a one size fits all. Knowing what I know today, if I were and attorney, I would be asking you not if your level was possible or probable but to what percentage you believe in your opinion being correct. Remember, when on the witness stand much of the trier of fact acceptance of our opinion comes from perception. I would like to have an expert on the stand indicate the level of certainty he or she has in the opinion being correct is only slightly above 50%. My comment to the jury would be, after that answer, is all this experts needs to do is flip a coin to get a 50% level of certainty.

What it seems is being said is one only needs to test their hypothesis until they find one that rises above the 50%.



Subject Views Written By Posted
  Acceptable Level of Certainty 1672 Jim Mazerat 02/03/2007 09:47PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1053 Jim Mazerat 02/04/2007 12:11PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 920 MIJ 02/04/2007 02:37PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1090 Jim Mazerat 02/04/2007 05:12PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1000 jmorse 02/04/2007 07:15PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 942 Jim Mazerat 02/05/2007 10:37AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1011 MIJ 02/05/2007 11:35AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 950 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 11:09AM
  One more comment 948 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 11:13AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1036 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 11:55AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 888 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 02:59PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 883 SJAvato 02/08/2007 03:59PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1020 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 05:15PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 919 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 05:21PM
  Define "probable" 988 Gerald Hurst 02/14/2007 01:05PM
  Re: Define "probable" 1007 PMK140 02/14/2007 04:12PM
  Re: Define "probable" 947 Gerald Hurst 02/14/2007 10:20PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 952 jbflanigan 02/05/2007 04:22PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 886 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 12:13PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 856 MIJ 02/08/2007 06:02PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 984 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 08:10PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 954 MIJ 02/09/2007 09:47AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 894 jgmcfps 02/09/2007 02:12PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 905 MIJ 02/09/2007 03:09PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 899 jgmcfps 02/09/2007 04:50PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 897 firecop5002 02/09/2007 08:17PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 874 Jim Mazerat 02/09/2007 10:01PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 826 dahebert 02/10/2007 08:12AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 925 Jim Mazerat 02/09/2007 08:17PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1048 jgmcfps 02/10/2007 02:40PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 877 Jim Mazerat 02/10/2007 04:36PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1005 jgmcfps 02/11/2007 08:16AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 969 Jim Mazerat 02/11/2007 09:10AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1170 John J. Lentini, CFEI 02/16/2007 02:48PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1142 PMK140 02/16/2007 04:30PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 973 Jim Mazerat 02/16/2007 07:11PM


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