Fire/Arson Investigations :  Fire/Arson Investigations The fastest message board... ever.
A place to ask questions and add to probative and informative discussions associated with the various aspects of the field of fire investigation. -- FORUM RULES---BE CIVIL AND NO NAME CALLING, NO BELITTLING, NO BERATING, NO DENIGRATING others. Postings in violation of these rules can be removed or editted to remove the offending remarks at the discretion of the moderators and/or site administrator. 
Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty
Posted by: Jim Mazerat (IP Logged)
Date: February 16, 2007 07:11PM

John:

Maybe this needs to be looked at in a different context. What as a profession are we attempting to accomplish in the development of a specific description of the different levels of confidence to attribute to the belief in our opinion. We are attempting to communicate a specific thought to others as to how strong we feel that the conclusion reached is the correct conclusion. In the beginning pre-existing terminology, with their definitions, were injected into the document. I am not saying this was a correct method of developing this topic, but as time for the document to come out of committee was close, this was thought to be the best way to express this idea.

I did not know the committee issued a TIA on the subject, and this may be part of the problem with the process. Those who purchase the document after the TIA has been issued have that document in with the document, but those purchased before do not get this update in the mail.

The words used to describe a level of confidence are not in themselves a legal term, but through the definition given to those words in 921there is some legal reference. There are many other terms used such as what you used earlier, “a degree of scientific certainty”. The problem as I see it is to get the profession to agree of a set of terms the accurately illustrate the thought we are attempting to convey to others. Here is where another problem comes to play. Not only do these terms need to be understood within our profession but also to those that we interface with during the process. This is where I feel we are lacking.

The purpose of this discussion was to learn how others felt about this subject and what their ideas were so that a suggestion could be made to the committee. From what others have commented, I realize that this is very complex subject and needs a lot more input. I wish I had the words that everyone would agree with but I know I do not, but I am trying. By the way, I did submit a suggestion to clarify that the level of certainty, as it is presently in the document, represents the level of certainty for the classification and not necessarily the cause, so I am part of the process in attempting to clarify areas of misunderstanding.

My problem is maybe this information does not even need to be in the document at this time since there seem to be a lack of general understanding as to the use of the terms. The committee itself has acknowledged there is a problem with the wording being used but has seem to put off taking action. To me, if there is a known problem, the committee should remove this from the document until action can be taken to correct the problem.

I did make a suggestion for a starter to accept Pat’s recommendation as written and another suggestion to similar to Pat’s with some minor changes.



Subject Views Written By Posted
  Acceptable Level of Certainty 1674 Jim Mazerat 02/03/2007 09:47PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1054 Jim Mazerat 02/04/2007 12:11PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 920 MIJ 02/04/2007 02:37PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1091 Jim Mazerat 02/04/2007 05:12PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1003 jmorse 02/04/2007 07:15PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 943 Jim Mazerat 02/05/2007 10:37AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1013 MIJ 02/05/2007 11:35AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 952 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 11:09AM
  One more comment 950 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 11:13AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1038 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 11:55AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 890 jgmcfps 02/08/2007 02:59PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 885 SJAvato 02/08/2007 03:59PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1025 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 05:15PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 924 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 05:21PM
  Define "probable" 989 Gerald Hurst 02/14/2007 01:05PM
  Re: Define "probable" 1010 PMK140 02/14/2007 04:12PM
  Re: Define "probable" 950 Gerald Hurst 02/14/2007 10:20PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 953 jbflanigan 02/05/2007 04:22PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 888 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 12:13PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 858 MIJ 02/08/2007 06:02PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 987 Jim Mazerat 02/08/2007 08:10PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 956 MIJ 02/09/2007 09:47AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 896 jgmcfps 02/09/2007 02:12PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 906 MIJ 02/09/2007 03:09PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 902 jgmcfps 02/09/2007 04:50PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 899 firecop5002 02/09/2007 08:17PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 876 Jim Mazerat 02/09/2007 10:01PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 829 dahebert 02/10/2007 08:12AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 928 Jim Mazerat 02/09/2007 08:17PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1050 jgmcfps 02/10/2007 02:40PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 880 Jim Mazerat 02/10/2007 04:36PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1007 jgmcfps 02/11/2007 08:16AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 972 Jim Mazerat 02/11/2007 09:10AM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1173 John J. Lentini, CFEI 02/16/2007 02:48PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 1143 PMK140 02/16/2007 04:30PM
  Re: Acceptable Level of Certainty 975 Jim Mazerat 02/16/2007 07:11PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.