A place to ask questions and add to probative and informative discussions associated with the various aspects of the field of fire investigation. -- FORUM RULES---BE CIVIL AND NO NAME CALLING, NO BELITTLING, NO BERATING, NO DENIGRATING others. Postings in violation of these rules can be removed or editted to remove the offending remarks at the discretion of the moderators and/or site administrator.
Re: Scientific Method
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: April 28, 2022 02:35PM
The SM applied to fire investigation does not include the process of elimination because it is not a closed system with knowledge of a finite number of outcomes. Useful and reliable for multiple choice exams, but not for FI.
In my opinion, NFPA 921 is incorrect on its statement that the process of elimination is an integral part of the SM. Not true. It is a reliable methodology under the SM only understand a special set of circumstances. The falsification of hypotheses is an integral part of the SM, not the process of elimination.
Again, there are four (4) general outcomes of the application of the SM with respect to hypotheses:
1) All valid hypotheses are disproved (i.e., eliminated) with evidence. Undetermined.
2) All but one valid hypotheses are disproved with evidence. This outcome provides a hypothesis that is uniquely consistent with the available evidence.
3) Multiple valid hypotheses that cannot be disproved and none are uniquely consistent with the available evidence. Undetermined.
4) The evidence only allows one valid hypothesis to be formulated and can not be disproved with evidence. Uniquely consistent with the available data.
Not all outcomes conclude with the elimination of all hypotheses except one. That is why the process of elimination is not an integral part of the SM.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com