I do not thing this is beating a dead horse. I believe your opinion on the topic is very important for others to hear. No one person has all the answers. One can learn something, like I have with you, from others they may not completely agree with.

I am not saying that the process of elimination is a part of the scientific method. What I am saying is it is a tool that is used when applying the scientific method. There is a difference.

I agree with your statement that, “The outcome of hypothesis testing using the SM has five (5) outcomes. Only two of the outcomes result in a single remaining hypothesis: 1) The available evidence allows for the formulation of one valid hypothesis that cannot be disproved with further evidence.2) There are multiple valid hypotheses than can be formulated based on the available evidence. All, but one, can be disproved with evidence. That one remaining hypothesis can be deemed uniquely consistent with the available evidence.”

“The other three outcomes do not produce one remaining hypothesis. In fact, there can be multiple valid hypotheses that can be formulated with evidence, but not disproved with evidence. If none of these valid hypotheses rise to the level of "uniquely consistent" with the available evidence, then the determination is "undetermined." If one of the multiple remaining valid hypotheses is "uniquely consistent" with the available evidence, then you have a reliable determination.” I agree with this also.

These two outcomes do not require the elimination of all hypotheses with one remaining to reach a reliable determination. The important concept that drives these outcomes are that the formulation of valid hypotheses requires evidence AND the disproving of a hypothesis also requires evidence. The "based on evidence" provides some of the reliability inherent in the application of the SM. This is also true.

Thus, the hypothesis that the SM involves a process of elimination where there is only one remaining hypothesis by the elimination of all others has been disproved. The testing and elimination of hypotheses in the SM is through the process of falsification where evidence is used to disprove the hypothesis. This is also true.

The point I am trying to make that in each of the outcomes you have listed you are attempting to eliminate the hypotheses. One may eliminate none, or all but one. The point is you are still using an elimination process to reach your goal.

Jim Mazerat
Forensic Investigations Group