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Re: Scientific Method
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: May 06, 2022 01:10PM
Beating a dead horse ...but a relevant concept to this discussion.
There seems a frequent argument from those who might be proponents of the use of process of elimination that "The Process of Elimination" and "a process of elimination" and are different. The argument goes that a process of elimination is used in the application of the SM. That is, you arrive at a determination by eliminating all but one hypothesis. Let's test such a hypothesis, which I have implicitly done previously with my list of outcomes of hypothesis testing in the SM.
The premise and endpoint of a process of elimination is one remaining hypothesis since you have eliminated all other hypotheses and one remains. The Sherlock Holmes concept of the SM.
The outcome of hypothesis testing using the SM has five (5) outcomes. Only two of the outcomes result in a single remaining hypothesis: 1) The available evidence allows for the formulation of one valid hypothesis that cannot be disproved with further evidence.2) There are multiple valid hypotheses than can be formulated based on the available evidence. All, but one, can be disproved with evidence. That one remaining hypothesis can be deemed uniquely consistent wit the available evidence.
The other three outcomes do not produce one remaining hypothesis. In fact, there can be multiple valid hypotheses that can be formulated with evidence, but not disproved with evidence. If none of these valid hypotheses rise to the level of "uniquely consistent" with the available evidence, then the determination is "undetermined." If one of the multiple remaining valid hypotheses is "uniquely consistent" with the available evidence, then you have a reliable determination.
These two outcomes do not require the elimination of all hypotheses with one remaining to reach a reliable determination. The important concept that drives these outcome are that the formulation of valid hypotheses requires evidence AND the disproving of a hypothesis also requires evidence. The "based on evidence" provides some of the reliability inherent in the application of the SM.
Thus, the hypothesis that the SM involves a process of elimination where there is only one remaining hypothesis by the elimination of all others has been disproved. The testing and elimination of hypotheses in the SM is through the process of falsification where evidence is used to disprove the hypothesis.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
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