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Re: Back to basics – testing your hypothesis.
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: January 11, 2007 01:14PM
>A welcome your views, and I am trying to learn.
>It seems that I hear in some seminars that if you do not have a fire that is >straight out of the book than you have to have the fire looked at by several >engineers, scientist or what ever you want to call them to make the fire vaild >under the scenitific method??
Again, labeling people does not make a determination valid under the scientific method. The point should be that you have to correctly apply the scientific method. Gerald brings up another reoccurring theme related to testing your hypothesis with only the data that supports it. The correct application requires that one test any hypothesis against ALL the facts of the case as well as available scientific/fundamental knowledge. If only the former were true (as is currently written in 921), one could arrive at a determination using the scientific method that violates a fundamental law. This concept has been proposed to be added to NFPA 921 in this revision cycle. In my opinion, if you do not have the prerequisite knowledge to test your hypothesis, then you will need help. That should be the message fro mthe seminars. Sounds more like marketing to me for as opposed to education.
>Or, is it that the investigator some how has to pull out of NFPA 921 the sections >that supprt the theory?? And is the investigator back to making the book fit the >fire????
>Or is it that the fire and the metjod used has to go to court and the judge decides >if it is right or wrong????
In the end, the analysis and determintation should technically stand on its own. 921 can tell you how to conduct an investigation, but it is not a devise to assess if your specific fire detemination is valid according to the scientific method. In my experience, the courts have not been the place to determine scientific validity of one's conclusions.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com