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Re: 921 Level of Certainty
Posted by: dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 10, 2022 11:50AM
Q: Do we not use a level of certainty when going through the steps of the scientific method?
A: Implicitly, not explicitly. The certainty comes with the use of evidence specific to the incident. Data is information that can be documented and verified. Evidence is data that is both relevant and reliable in a specific context.
Q: What opinions being given that use the scientific method that are absolute.
A: None. Science is a compilation of reliable knowledge. It is reliable knowledge until it is not. At any given moment, new evidence can be brought forth that can disprove a hypothesis. Thus, any determination based on science is not absolute, but subject to continually testing the reliability of the science using the SM.
Q: The use of the scientific gives one the most reliable determination.
A: The most reliable determination is the hypothesis that is uniquely consistent with the evidence. That is the best that science can do. This is not the general perception of the concept of science.
Q: By saying most reliable, are we not using a level of certainty.
A: Implicitly, not explicitly.
Q: Can one ever say that their use of the scientific method in reaching a conclusion is an absolute fact?
A: No. A theory is a well-tested hypothesis. A law is a well-tested theory. At any point, evidence can be produced that disproves a hypothesis, a theory, or a law. That is the best that science can produce.
Q: Is there no chance for human error when evaluating the evidence during the process of reaching a conclusion?
A: Yes. Ignorance, bias, corruption, etc. can produce unreliable determinations.
Q: Does not part of the scientific method call for the use of personal evaluate of the evidence?
A: In some, but not all. Not sure what your implying.
Q: Is this not a level of certainty based on the person’s education, knowledge, and experience?
A: The application of the SM does in the considering of hypotheses prior to formulating a hypothesis with evidence.
Q: When it comes to the first fuel ignited, how many times is it possible to state conclusively the exact fuel involved.
A: You need evidence.
Q: If the investigator cannot say absolutely what is the specific fuel was the first to be ignited, then does he have an opinion that is based on the scientific method.
A: Not absolute. You need evidence for reliability.
Q: In this case, cannot the investigator use the level of certainty in reaching the conclusion as to what was the first fuel ignited.
A: Implicitly, not explicitly. How would you qualitatively apply a level of certainty that would be reliable? How would you quantitatively apply a level of certainty that would be reliable?
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com
A: Implicitly, not explicitly. The certainty comes with the use of evidence specific to the incident. Data is information that can be documented and verified. Evidence is data that is both relevant and reliable in a specific context.
Q: What opinions being given that use the scientific method that are absolute.
A: None. Science is a compilation of reliable knowledge. It is reliable knowledge until it is not. At any given moment, new evidence can be brought forth that can disprove a hypothesis. Thus, any determination based on science is not absolute, but subject to continually testing the reliability of the science using the SM.
Q: The use of the scientific gives one the most reliable determination.
A: The most reliable determination is the hypothesis that is uniquely consistent with the evidence. That is the best that science can do. This is not the general perception of the concept of science.
Q: By saying most reliable, are we not using a level of certainty.
A: Implicitly, not explicitly.
Q: Can one ever say that their use of the scientific method in reaching a conclusion is an absolute fact?
A: No. A theory is a well-tested hypothesis. A law is a well-tested theory. At any point, evidence can be produced that disproves a hypothesis, a theory, or a law. That is the best that science can produce.
Q: Is there no chance for human error when evaluating the evidence during the process of reaching a conclusion?
A: Yes. Ignorance, bias, corruption, etc. can produce unreliable determinations.
Q: Does not part of the scientific method call for the use of personal evaluate of the evidence?
A: In some, but not all. Not sure what your implying.
Q: Is this not a level of certainty based on the person’s education, knowledge, and experience?
A: The application of the SM does in the considering of hypotheses prior to formulating a hypothesis with evidence.
Q: When it comes to the first fuel ignited, how many times is it possible to state conclusively the exact fuel involved.
A: You need evidence.
Q: If the investigator cannot say absolutely what is the specific fuel was the first to be ignited, then does he have an opinion that is based on the scientific method.
A: Not absolute. You need evidence for reliability.
Q: In this case, cannot the investigator use the level of certainty in reaching the conclusion as to what was the first fuel ignited.
A: Implicitly, not explicitly. How would you qualitatively apply a level of certainty that would be reliable? How would you quantitatively apply a level of certainty that would be reliable?
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com
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