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Re: 921 Level of Certainty
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 21, 2022 10:47AM
"Most probable is the most reliable determination."
That is not an accurate statement or reliable application of the SM. The most reliable determination is the one that is UNIQUELY CONSISTENT with the available EVIDENCE. Such a determination can be held to a level of certainty of "more probable than not."
If the most probably is the most reliable, then I would need to use statistics in my deterministic analysis. We have discussed this at length as to why that is not a reliable methodology.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com