"What does one do when there is more than one hypothesis that cannot be disproved?"

Arrived at an "undetermined" determination. If one of the hypotheses is not uniquely consistent with the available evidence, then no reliable determination as to the fire cause can be made.


"Just saying undetermined as to a fire cause is not enough. Undetermined give a false indication. It makes it sounds as if there is possibility of reaching a finding as to the fire cause. What I am say is by using words such as unresolved, undecided, or needing additional investigation would better state the reality of the status of the investigation to determine the actual fire cause."

Why not enough? Actually, the "false indication" comes from making a determination based on more than one hypothesis where none are uniquely consistent with the available evidence. The SM is all about reliability. The use of evidence in the application of the SM is one means of providing reliability in the application of the SM. Without any evidence that allows one hypothesis to be uniquely consistent with the available evidence, any further determination beyond "undetermined," is subjective and unreliable.

Yes, unresolved. Science is never absolute or resolved. To resolve this condition would require additional evidence. Sometimes, as more evidence is obtained through the iterative application of the SM, you can resolve this condition and reach a reliable determination. Otherwise, "undetermined fire cause" means that there is insufficient evidence to reach a reliable determination.

Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com