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Re: 921 Level of Certainty
Posted by: J L Mazerat (IP Logged)
Date: March 20, 2022 10:40AM

Since so much of this discussion has involved around the scientific method I though the discussion should expand into that area of understanding. As a fire investigator you can expect that you will need to explain this methodology and how it relates to your investigation. It is important that you do not get bogged down in semantics. It is up to you as the person rendering the conclusion to be able to explain how your investigation followed an accepted methodology that can be related to the scientific method. Where some attempt to make the scientific method a sword to be used against you, do not be intimidated. It is a very simple methodology that is taught in sixth grade. It is there to help you with your investigation.

If you purport to use 921 in your investigation without limitation, be ready to get questioned on all aspects of 921. If you purport that you have used the methodology (the scientific method) found in 921, that may limit your exposure to questioning as to what is contained in the document. The courts are more concerned as to your methodology rather that everything contained in 921.

What we have come to know is the scientific method is what we see in 921. How many understand that the steps shown in 921 are not the only sequence of steps that have been accepted in the scientific community when it comes to applying the scientific method. The steps found in 921 are procedures one is expected to follow to comply with the scientific method. What must be acknowledged is that these steps can change and still be applicable to the scientific method. The ultimate goal is what is important. Where one may find these steps or procedures vary from one field to another to another, the underlying process is frequently the same. Some say there are seven steps to the scientific whereas others may say there are five. When evaluating the two one needs to compare them to see if the steps called for cover the main points of the scientific method. I have seen investigator leave out the first two steps shown in 921 but follow the remaining steps.

One process being used and being identified as the scientific method states the process in the scientific method involves making conjectures (hypothetical explanations), deriving predictions from the hypotheses as logical consequences, and then carrying out experiments or empirical observations based on those predictions. Another accepted set of steps is found in what is referred to as the Scientific Method for Data Collection. This calls for a six-step process. These are to ask a question, preform a background research, construct a hypothesis, test the hypothesis, analyze the results and develop a conclusion, and report the results. There is even on methodology that list eight-steps. As one can see the steps here or different than what is found in 921 but all are considered acceptable methodology for complying with the scientific method. What you use is up to you but be able to show where your methodology has been accepted.

As you could see by the discussion above there are differences of opinions relating to specifics as to how the process evolves. In your explanations do not get caught up technical issues as to what goes into each step, such as the method of evaluating, subjective or not subjective. Here it comes into personal opinions as to how the process evolves.

All I was trying to get across to the reader of the postings was that the conclusions reached using the scientific method were not necessarily absolutely accurate. There is always some level of certainty involved with any conclusion reached. An understanding of that level of certainty is very important when given your opinion. It is not a direct attack on you as a person if others reviewing the same data reach a different conclusion. We do not all think alike and thereby do not always analyze information in the same way. This difference in the analyzation process leads to different opinions. There is nothing wrong with that taking place. The analyzation process one uses over another may relate to the person’s education, and experience on that specific subject.

Your report serves two purposes. Your report is a method of communicating to others your findings along with the methodology you used to reach your conclusions. The second is your report or your notes that will assist you in remembering the process you used when conducting your investigation as well as the facts you learned as the result of your investigation. Here I would suggest you go to following and read the report (https://doi.org/10.29325/OSAC.TG.0005). The more knowledge you have as to the reason behind why you are being asked to follow a methodology, such as the one found in 921, the better you can formulate your response to any questions concerning your methodology.

Jim Mazerat
Forensic Investigations Group



Subject Views Written By Posted
  921 Level of Certainty 558 J L Mazerat 03/01/2022 10:41AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 322 J L Mazerat 03/03/2022 08:27AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 345 dcarpenter 03/03/2022 10:28AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 326 J L Mazerat 03/04/2022 09:52AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 311 dcarpenter 03/10/2022 11:50AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 290 J L Mazerat 03/12/2022 09:10AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 281 dcarpenter 03/14/2022 02:54PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 265 J L Mazerat 03/15/2022 10:06AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 274 dcarpenter 03/15/2022 07:27PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 268 J L Mazerat 03/16/2022 12:58PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 264 dcarpenter 03/17/2022 02:35PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 259 J L Mazerat 03/18/2022 09:07AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 261 dcarpenter 03/18/2022 10:51AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 262 J L Mazerat 03/19/2022 12:06PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 254 dcarpenter 03/21/2022 10:42AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 233 J L Mazerat 03/21/2022 05:09PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 237 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 08:46AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 234 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 09:00AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 231 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 11:48AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 244 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 11:41AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 235 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 01:16PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 236 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 02:32PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 256 J L Mazerat 03/19/2022 09:37AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 292 dcarpenter 03/19/2022 10:04AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 253 J L Mazerat 03/19/2022 08:30PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 254 dcarpenter 03/21/2022 10:47AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 241 J L Mazerat 03/21/2022 05:16PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 248 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 08:56AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 242 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 11:45AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 260 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 01:21PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 239 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 02:36PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 243 dcarpenter 03/22/2022 03:18PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 235 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 05:41PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 243 J L Mazerat 03/22/2022 07:35PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 267 J L Mazerat 03/20/2022 10:40AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 271 cda 03/20/2022 08:27PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 263 J L Mazerat 03/21/2022 08:32PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 251 cda 03/22/2022 09:54AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 251 J L Mazerat 03/23/2022 10:57AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 259 CJN 03/23/2022 08:54PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 257 dcarpenter 03/29/2022 08:26AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 257 dcarpenter 03/29/2022 08:31AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 246 J L Mazerat 03/29/2022 10:55AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 250 J L Mazerat 03/29/2022 10:51AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 263 John Lentini 03/31/2022 03:38PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 268 J L Mazerat 03/31/2022 06:57PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 268 John Lentini 04/01/2022 10:12AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 239 J L Mazerat 04/08/2022 08:37AM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 264 J L Mazerat 03/24/2022 02:47PM
  Re: 921 Level of Certainty 257 J L Mazerat 04/07/2022 10:34AM


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