Fire/Arson Investigations : Fire/Arson Investigations
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Re: 921 Level of Certainty
Posted by: dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 22, 2022 08:46AM
I think the definitions of data and evidence that is fundamental to the scientific community are not significantly different from NFPA 921.
Factual information does not provide proof. Factual information is data. Data does not provide evidence.
The "for sale" sign on the front lawn is DATA. It can be documented and verified, thus, it is not just INFORMATION.
Upon an assessment of relevance and reliability, what is this evidence of?
One can use this data as evidence to formulate a hypothesis that the house is for sale. One could then further test the hypothesis by contacting the real estate company to see if the house is currently for sale or if the sign was a residual condition of a purchased house. Based on this new data and evidence, the hypothesis is either disproved or consistence with the available evidence (a hypothesis can never be proven, only disproved by falsification).
Assuming a fire has occurred, can one use this data as evidence to formulate a hypothesis that the fire cause classification was incendiary based upon the presence of the for sale sign? The presence of the sign is data, but is it evidence? Assessing the relevance and reliability of the data in the specific context of an incendiary fire, it is not relevant or reliable data to be used as evidence for an incendiary fire.
There are houses for sale that have no fires. There are houses not for sale that have fires. There are houses for sale that have fires. Without additional evidence that would allow one hypothesis to be uniquely consistent with the available evidence, a for sale sign is not evidence of an incendiary fire. Thus, the data is not relevant and reliable to be used as evidence in the context of an incendiary fire hypothesis.
The same data does not provide evidence for the formulation of hypotheses outside of specific context.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com
Factual information does not provide proof. Factual information is data. Data does not provide evidence.
The "for sale" sign on the front lawn is DATA. It can be documented and verified, thus, it is not just INFORMATION.
Upon an assessment of relevance and reliability, what is this evidence of?
One can use this data as evidence to formulate a hypothesis that the house is for sale. One could then further test the hypothesis by contacting the real estate company to see if the house is currently for sale or if the sign was a residual condition of a purchased house. Based on this new data and evidence, the hypothesis is either disproved or consistence with the available evidence (a hypothesis can never be proven, only disproved by falsification).
Assuming a fire has occurred, can one use this data as evidence to formulate a hypothesis that the fire cause classification was incendiary based upon the presence of the for sale sign? The presence of the sign is data, but is it evidence? Assessing the relevance and reliability of the data in the specific context of an incendiary fire, it is not relevant or reliable data to be used as evidence for an incendiary fire.
There are houses for sale that have no fires. There are houses not for sale that have fires. There are houses for sale that have fires. Without additional evidence that would allow one hypothesis to be uniquely consistent with the available evidence, a for sale sign is not evidence of an incendiary fire. Thus, the data is not relevant and reliable to be used as evidence in the context of an incendiary fire hypothesis.
The same data does not provide evidence for the formulation of hypotheses outside of specific context.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
(410) 884-3266
(410) 884-3267 (fax)
www.csefire.com
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