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Re: 921 Level of Certainty
Posted by:
dcarpenter (IP Logged)
Date: March 22, 2022 08:56AM
It is more probable than not. Not "most probable." You introduced the term "most."
These are different concepts.
In deterministic terms, a hypothesis that is uniquely consistence with the available evidence has a level of uncertainty that is more probable than not. At any subsequent time, new data and evidence can be obtained that disproves the hypothesis and may allow a new hypothesis to be formulated with the same evidence.
In terms of risk, most probable is a statistical concept and not part of a deterministic analysis.
"Can you reference accepted published documents that say one must use statistics from a deterministic analysis." I do not understand your question. I do not believe I have made such a statement. In accurate statements do not help this discussion.
Douglas J. Carpenter, MScFPE, CFEI, PE, FSFPE
Vice President & Principal Engineer
Combustion Science & Engineering, Inc.
8940 Old Annapolis Road, Suite L
Columbia, MD 21045
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